It's only been three weeks into Katie's journey for love, but based on chemistry — and the fact that they're the only two contestants so far to have gotten one-on-one dates — The Bachelorette frontrunners are Michael A. and Greg. Michael knows what it's like to experience true love and is looking for a new future for him and his son. Greg is emotionally vulnerable and a great listener, who loves his family. Based on what The Bachelorette has shown, they are both decent dudes and Katie's a smitten kitten (sorry, Connor B.). So, in the battle of Michael A. vs. Greg on The Bachelorette who's going to end up on top? Here's a very official analysis of who seems more likely to end up with Katie.

The Ex Factor

Greg looks like her ex and Katie herself even said she doesn't know if that's a good or bad thing. On the good side, Katie may claim to not have a type, but she had that initial attraction to him. But looks ain't everything. And who wants to be haunted by the ghosts of boyfriends past?

Point Michael

The First Impression Rose

When it comes to The Bachelorette, the recipient of the First Impression Rose has a good chance of winning the whole shebang. As ET documented — and when you include Dale Moss from Clare Crawley's season — seven of the First Impression Rose winners ended up being the Bachelorette's final choice. Only one couple has married (that would be none other than Rachel Lindsay and Bryan Abasolo), but JoJo Fletcher is still engaged to Jordan Rodgers and Clare and Dale are back together (for now). So even if Katie and her winner don't make it all the way to the altar, it's a very promising sign for Greg that he got her First Impression Rose.

Point Greg

Her Stance On Kids

Katie said in the first episode that she's not sure if she wants to have kids. She didn't rule it out, but motherhood didn't seem like a top priority or a requirement. "For me, I definitely want kids in some way, I think?" Katie told Michael. "Really, I'm just open to all scenarios."

Greg comes from a big family and wants six kids of his own to pose shirtless with (it's a thing). When it comes to Michael, he already has a 4-year-old son James with his late wife Laura, who passed away from breast cancer in 2019.

Now, kids in the abstract with Greg is very different than taking on the role of stepmother for a child who has lost his mother. Based on how Katie reacted to Michael's story about his life — and how she offered his one-on-one date rose to both him and James — she does genuinely seem open to that scenario though.

Draw

The Kisses

Katie kissed three guys on night one. (In my best Lucille Bluth impression, I say, "Good for her!") But while Greg got a kiss with his First Impression Rose, Michael was smooch-less. Sure, they made up for it on their one-on-one date in Week 3 where Michael asked her if he could kiss her. And though Katie gave her best Big impression in response, it still seems she might have a smidgen more natural kissing chemistry with Greg.

Point Greg (And maybe Connor the Cat gets a point as well.)

The Truth About Cats & Dogs

Michael has a dog named Tommy and Katie has a cat named Tommy. Greg may have a dog too, but how can you compete with double Tommys?

Point Michael

Location, Location, Location

Katie's from Seattle. That's still her location according to her Twitter bio and her activity on Instagram (throwing out the first pitch at a Mariners game, hiking Mount Rainier) has her still hanging around there as her Bachelorette season airs. But the way of the road is often that Bach Nation members move to New York and Los Angeles as their fame increases and they become les influencers.

If Katie had dreams of the Big Apple, Greg — who's from Edison, N.J. — would have quite an easy move. Actually, he might already live in New York City since his LinkedIn has him as an account manager for the NYC-based company Mondo. (And, if this TikTok is to be believed, he was planning to move there pre-Bachelorette.) Even if Katie weren't to move from the Pacific Northwest, Greg may have less baggage to make a cross-country move since he just started working at Mondo in November 2020.

Meanwhile, Michael has been raising his son in Ohio, so it might be tougher to relocate and move his child away from family. Plus, Michael has multiple professional obligations in Ohio. Besides his L4 Project, which sells clothes and donates profits to help support people with cancer and their families, Michael's LinkedIn notes he founded the company Allstera in 2020 and has worked as the VP of sales and marketing for MASCOT Workwear in 2012. Both companies are located in Akron.

Point Greg

The One-On-One Dates

Katie's had two great one-on-one dates, first with Greg and then with Michael. Both men embraced her love of the outdoors, discussed losing a loved one, and shared tears and laughs with her. But the show devoted just a little bit more screentime on her date with Greg than Michael (a difference between 14 minutes-ish and 13 minutes-ish). Perhaps the extra time was to account for the fact that Greg struggled to set up a tent. But for the dates' grand finales, Greg got fireworks while Michael got stargazing. Both sound romantic, but one costs production a helluva lot more money than the other. (Spoiler alert: it's fireworks.)

Point Greg

The Guys' Obligations

When Michael didn't get a date in Week 2, he mentioned how it was hard being away from home and presumably, his son. He's currently 37 and in this Instagram video from three weeks ago, he seemed to have a lot on his plate that had nothing to do with his love life. Greg's 28 and in general, seems to have a more flexible life. If you had to choose one person who would be more down to get down on one knee on national television and propose, it seems that Greg wouldn't be as burdened by as many obligations as Michael.

Point Greg

Podcast Order

This one's very scientific. Katie was a guest on Bachelor Happy Hour ("the one and only official Bachelor Nation podcast") on June 15. And who was the following guest the very next week on June 22? None other than Michael A. Does that mean they're in love?? Or, does that mean that Michael is setting the foundation to become the first single father Bachelor? Discuss.

Draw

Love On A Bucket

Some people may be in relationships where they never hang with their partner in the bathroom. I do not understand these relationships. But eventually, if you're living together, married, etc., you might see your partner on the toilet. Katie and Greg already showed through their camping date that they can handle some toilet time and (gasp!) may even share a kiss or two where they do their business — whether that's a bucket with a vista or a bathroom with double sinks.

Point Greg

A Pain In The Ass

When Michael A. and Katie were on their one-on-one, they did some star-gazing. The credits scene shows that Katie knows absolutely nothing about astronomy while Michael can't help but be a know-it-all about it. (Same, Michael, same.) She says that one star is called "Michael's A.'s Royal Pain In My Ass." While it might not be the most romantic sentiment, the couple who teases together, stays together.

Point Michael

The final tally? Michael: 3 points. Greg: 6 points. Their fates with Katie may be written in the stars.

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Images: Craig Sjodin/ABC